The prospect of China's walnut trade.
China is the largest producer and consumer of walnuts in the world. The current status and import and export trade of China's walnut production and marketing in 2023 play an important role.
1.Yield Analysis
In 2023, China's walnut production steadily increased. According to the latest statistics of the China Fruit Fertilizer Association released by the Chinese Farmers' Network, the total national walnut output in 2023 reached 85.15 million kilograms, an increase of 3.15% compared with the previous year, which is the highest level in the past ten years. From a regional perspective, they are mainly concentrated in Henan, Shanxi, Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shandong, Shaanxi and Guizhou provinces. Henan ranks first with a market share of 59.92%, accounting for the largest share of the country's walnut production; followed by Xinjiang, Shanxi and Shandong.
2.Sales and Export Trade Analysis
In 2023, China's walnut sales steadily increased. According to statistics from the China Fruit Fertilizer Association, the total national walnut sales in 2023 reached 62.87 million kilograms, an increase of 2.45% compared with the previous year, which is the highest level in the past ten years. From a market perspective, the main consumption markets of walnuts are mainly concentrated in Henan, Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Anhui and Shaanxi provinces, of which Henan, Xinjiang and Sichuan rank first with market shares of 18.27%, 17.32% and 16.22% respectively.
From the perspective of export trade, in 2023, the export market of walnuts continued to expand, and the total export volume reached 8539,000 kilograms, an increase of 34.56% compared with the previous year, reaching the highest record in four years. The main export markets are concentrated in Dubai, Morocco, Canada, Japan, and Latvia, with different market growth rates. Dubai, Morocco and Canada each account for 13.46%, 9.47% and 6.19% of the total export volume respectively.
3.Price Analysis
According to the data released by the China Fruit Fertilizer Association in 2023, the average price of walnuts in the domestic and export markets showed satisfactory performance, with the listing price changing to 42.28/kg and 53.9/kg respectively, an increase of 3.4% and 4.2% respectively compared with the previous year, an increase of 35.4% and 56.1% respectively compared with 2019. According to the average price trend in different production areas, the average price of small walnuts in Henan changed to 41.90/kg, higher than 38.43/kg in the previous year, an increase of 55.0% compared with 2019; the average price of large walnuts in Xinjiang changed to 51.90/kg, higher than 49.20/kg in the previous year, an increase of 20.1% compared with 2019. According to the above analysis, the price of walnuts in China in 2023 maintained a relatively high increase rate.
4.Market Forecast
It is expected that in 2023, the Chinese walnut market will continue to maintain a healthy and rapid development. According to the trend of economic development, the growth rate of China's walnut output will continue to rise, and its market share will also continue to expand. In the next year, it will also promote the growth of walnut production in more countries and regions, of which Latvia and Canada will be the most important export markets in the coming years. In addition, the price of the walnut market will continue to rise steadily, and the Shanghai spot price will be more obvious, with the price of walnuts expected to be between 45 and 55 yuan/kg in 2023. At the same time, some high-quality or shaped walnuts may also reach higher levels.
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